Tea at Trianon: The Thucydides Trap

John Wilson Croker on Marie-Antoinette

"We have followed the history of Marie Antoinette with the greatest diligence and scrupulosity. We have lived in those times. We have talked with some of her friends and some of her enemies; we have read, certainly not all, but hundreds of the libels written against her; and we have, in short, examined her life with– if we may be allowed to say so of ourselves– something of the accuracy of contemporaries, the diligence of inquirers, and the impartiality of historians, all combined; and we feel it our duty to declare, in as a solemn a manner as literature admits of, our well-matured opinion that every reproach against the morals of the queen was a gross calumny– that she was, as we have said, one of the purest of human beings."

~from History of the Guillotine by John Wilson Croker, 1844

Edmund Burke on Marie-Antoinette

"It is now sixteen or seventeen years since I saw the queen of France, then dauphiness, at Versailles; and surely there never lighted on this orb, which she hardly seemed to touch, a more delightful vision. I saw her just above the horizon, decorating and cheering the elevated sphere she had just begun to move in, glittering like a morning star full of life and splendor and joy. Oh, what a revolution....Little did I dream that I should have lived to see such disasters fall upon her, in a nation of gallant men, in a nation of men of honor and of cavaliers! I thought ten thousand swords must have leaped from their scabbards, to avenge even a look which threatened her with insult. But the age of chivalry is gone; that of sophisters, economists, and calculators has succeeded...."

~Edmund Burke, October 1790

Sunday, May 24, 2026

The Thucydides Trap

From Alexander Muse on Amuse on X:

There is a particular kind of intellectual fraud that flourishes only when no one with the relevant expertise is paying attention. The “Thucydides Trap,” a phrase invented by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison and elevated since 2015 to the status of a scientific law of international relations, is exactly that sort of fraud. Earlier this week, Victor Davis Hanson, the classicist who edited the standard scholarly English edition of Thucydides used in American universities, The Landmark Thucydides, finally said the quiet thing loudly. “There is no Thucydides Trap. If there were, it would not apply to us. If it did apply to us, we would not start a war. The entire notion that Premier Xi suggested is bankrupt.”
Three sentences. The mainstream international relations field will not recover from them, and it should not.
To understand why Hanson’s intervention matters, consider the scene that prompted it. On May 14, 2026, Xi Jinping sat across from President Donald Trump in Beijing and invoked the Thucydides Trap. A Communist autocrat, sitting atop a one-party police state, cited a Harvard political scientist to lecture an American president on a Greek text written by a man Xi has almost certainly never read in the original. The premier of a regime that censors its own historians reached for the authority of the Greeks to instruct the leader of the free world about the dangers of confronting authoritarian power. The inversion is so total that it borders on satire, and yet the press dutifully reported it as wisdom.
The reader will reasonably ask: why would Xi do this? Why would the head of state of a rising, or formerly rising, China reach for an obscure academic framework to explain his position to an American president? The answer is the entire argument of this essay. Xi reached for Allison because Allison’s thesis serves Beijing’s purposes. It is, and has always been, propaganda disguised as scholarship, and its function is to teach Americans to accept their own decline as a structural inevitability rather than a policy choice. (Read more.)