From The Enterprise:
There is a simple test for whether a nation’s climate policy is
serious. Ask what it does for the citizen standing in a 104°F apartment.
Britain fails this test, and it fails it in a way that should terrify
anyone watching Sacramento or Albany, because the failure is not an
accident of implementation. It is baked into the theory. Britain has
organized its entire climate regime around a single false premise, the
premise that a country can purchase safety from a warming world by
making itself poorer. The results are now in, and they constitute the
most instructive policy experiment of the century.
Begin with the
arithmetic, because everything else follows from it. In 2024 the world
emitted 53.2 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases. Britain emitted 386.7
million tonnes, which is 0.73% of the total. China emitted roughly 40
Britains. The US emitted about 15. India emitted 11. And here is the
number that should end every debate about unilateral sacrifice: global
emissions grew by roughly 665 million tonnes in that single year, which
means the world added approximately 1.7 Britains of new emissions in 12
months. If Britain had vanished from the map on January 1, 2024, ceased
all economic activity, extinguished every light and grounded every
aircraft, the global emissions ledger would have recovered the
difference in about 7 months. This is not an argument for nihilism. It
is an argument for strategic clarity. Britain cannot control the hazard.
It can only control its vulnerability to the hazard. A rational
government would therefore ask one question above all others: what
reduces the vulnerability of the British people? The answer is
adaptation, and adaptation has a price tag. The Climate Change
Committee, Britain’s own official climate watchdog, estimates that the
country needs approximately £11 billion annually in adaptation
investment, covering flood defenses, water storage, hospital retrofits,
and cooling. Note what that number implies. Adaptation is not a moral
posture. It is a capital expenditure, and capital expenditures require
capital, which requires a productive economy, which requires cheap and
reliable energy.
Now observe what Britain actually did. The Office
for National Statistics reports that output in Britain’s
energy-intensive industries has fallen by roughly one-third since 2021.
Non-domestic electricity prices nearly doubled between early 2021 and
late 2023. By 2023, British industrial electricity prices were the
highest among all 24 countries reporting to the International Energy
Agency, nearly 50% above French and German levels and approximately 4
times American and Canadian levels. Think about what that sentence
means. The country that needs £11 billion a year to protect itself from
heat and flooding has engineered the most expensive industrial
electricity in the developed world, driving out the very industries
whose tax revenue and productive capacity would fund the protection.
Britain is not trading prosperity for safety. It is liquidating the
capital account that safety would have been drawn against. (Read more.)
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