Tea at Trianon: 2024 is the Trench Warfare Election

John Wilson Croker on Marie-Antoinette

"We have followed the history of Marie Antoinette with the greatest diligence and scrupulosity. We have lived in those times. We have talked with some of her friends and some of her enemies; we have read, certainly not all, but hundreds of the libels written against her; and we have, in short, examined her life with– if we may be allowed to say so of ourselves– something of the accuracy of contemporaries, the diligence of inquirers, and the impartiality of historians, all combined; and we feel it our duty to declare, in as a solemn a manner as literature admits of, our well-matured opinion that every reproach against the morals of the queen was a gross calumny– that she was, as we have said, one of the purest of human beings."

~from History of the Guillotine by John Wilson Croker, 1844

Edmund Burke on Marie-Antoinette

"It is now sixteen or seventeen years since I saw the queen of France, then dauphiness, at Versailles; and surely there never lighted on this orb, which she hardly seemed to touch, a more delightful vision. I saw her just above the horizon, decorating and cheering the elevated sphere she had just begun to move in, glittering like a morning star full of life and splendor and joy. Oh, what a revolution....Little did I dream that I should have lived to see such disasters fall upon her, in a nation of gallant men, in a nation of men of honor and of cavaliers! I thought ten thousand swords must have leaped from their scabbards, to avenge even a look which threatened her with insult. But the age of chivalry is gone; that of sophisters, economists, and calculators has succeeded...."

~Edmund Burke, October 1790

Friday, September 20, 2024

2024 is the Trench Warfare Election

From The Transom:

The second presidential debate, watched by 67 million people, could’ve been a point where Harris laid these concerns to rest. The Democrat-leaning press and commentators were ebullient after her performance, believing it would be a huge boost to the campaign. Instead, the polling averages had at most a one point nudge (in Nate Silver’s average, she went from a 2.2 polling advantage on the day before the debate to 2.9 today). She leads in averages by enough to guarantee another popular vote win, but not by enough to leave any Democrat feeling comfortable about the Electoral College. And her problems with key Democratic groups — lagging Joe Biden among black men and Hispanics in particular — don’t seem to be going away no matter how many new accents she deploys. The “joy” just isn’t there for these voters.

The big news this week is the decision by the Teamsters, representing 1.3 million members, to for the first time in almost a quarter century not endorse the Democratic candidate for president. Independent surveys showed their members solidly supporting Donald Trump over Harris, by 59.6 to 34 percent. The decision not to endorse is really a dodge — their members have a clear tilt toward Trump, and it’s calling into question her campaign’s decision to focus more on the “care economy” than manufacturing and industry, in part because that’s what their candidate is comfortable talking about.

It has been without question the most chaotic presidential election of the modern era, and it’s not over yet. But the battle lines are hardened, and they really haven’t shifted. Americans might be on edge, but they are remarkably consistent in their views, priorities, and attitudes toward both sides. It’s a thin strip of no man’s land that will decide this election, and the people wandering in it right now are torn between two sides that don’t seem interested in speaking to them. They’re too busy trading shots online. (Read more.)