From The Guardian:
ShareUsing a statistical method borrowed from ecology, called “unseen species” modelling, they extrapolated from what has survived to gauge how much hasn’t – working backwards from the distribution of manuscripts we have today in order to estimate what must have existed in the past.
The numbers they published in Science magazine earlier this year don’t make for happy reading, but they corroborate figures arrived at by other methods. The researchers concluded that a humbling 90% of medieval manuscripts preserving chivalric and heroic narratives – those relating to King Arthur, for example, or Sigurd (also known as Siegfried) – have gone. Of the stories themselves, about a third have been lost completely, meaning that no manuscript preserving them remains.
The study also addressed the question of how representative the surviving stories and manuscripts are. Medieval Irish and Icelandic narrative fiction seems to have survived far better than the English equivalents. One reason might be that the practice of copying texts by hand persisted for much longer in Iceland and Ireland than in England, meaning that any given medieval tale is preserved in more manuscript copies – and so protected, to some extent, against the inevitable loss.
The causes of loss were manifold, from fires and other disasters, to the decay or recycling of material on which texts were written, to censorship, incompetence and corruption. Throughout history, the most destructive of these forces was probably fire – and not just in the western world. (Read more.)
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