Tea at Trianon: Swine Flu: What to Believe?

John Wilson Croker on Marie-Antoinette

"We have followed the history of Marie Antoinette with the greatest diligence and scrupulosity. We have lived in those times. We have talked with some of her friends and some of her enemies; we have read, certainly not all, but hundreds of the libels written against her; and we have, in short, examined her life with– if we may be allowed to say so of ourselves– something of the accuracy of contemporaries, the diligence of inquirers, and the impartiality of historians, all combined; and we feel it our duty to declare, in as a solemn a manner as literature admits of, our well-matured opinion that every reproach against the morals of the queen was a gross calumny– that she was, as we have said, one of the purest of human beings."

~from History of the Guillotine by John Wilson Croker, 1844

Edmund Burke on Marie-Antoinette

"It is now sixteen or seventeen years since I saw the queen of France, then dauphiness, at Versailles; and surely there never lighted on this orb, which she hardly seemed to touch, a more delightful vision. I saw her just above the horizon, decorating and cheering the elevated sphere she had just begun to move in, glittering like a morning star full of life and splendor and joy. Oh, what a revolution....Little did I dream that I should have lived to see such disasters fall upon her, in a nation of gallant men, in a nation of men of honor and of cavaliers! I thought ten thousand swords must have leaped from their scabbards, to avenge even a look which threatened her with insult. But the age of chivalry is gone; that of sophisters, economists, and calculators has succeeded...."

~Edmund Burke, October 1790

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Swine Flu: What to Believe?

Some words from an expert on viruses.

- Normal seasonal outbreaks of influenza kill about 35,000-40,000 people per year in the USA, usually elderly people. Any flu outbreak ought to met with common-sense precautions to cut down risk of infection and care for those infected.

- For a particular new strain of flu to qualify as especially dangerous, it has to satisfy two criteria: 1) that it is especially virulent, that is, that it kills a larger proportion of those infected than normal flu and 2) that it is especially easily transmitted from human to human. The killer Asian Bird Flu did not qualify as a pandemic because it met only 1 of these criteria – it killed about 10% of those infected, but it seems that most were infected through direct contact with live birds as opposed to being passed from human being to human being. It is not uncommon that viruses that originate in animals move less efficiently from person to person than from animal to animal or animal to person.

- It is impossible now and will remain impossible for several months to be able to make a scientific judgment whether either of these two criteria apply to this new swine virus. There just have not been enough cases reported and data collected. Anybody making “factual” statements on how dangerous this flu is basing the statements not on science but on hearsay and emotion.

- The media has a vested interest in sensationalism and hype – it keeps people buying papers and watching TV which makes advertisers happy. Heads of government departments have a vested interest in being overly precautionary to cover their rear. If the outbreak were to get severe, they could be blamed for not doing enough. So it is helpful to keep this in mind when listening to the TV.

- Being overly precautious can be bad. In the 1970’s a swine flu broke out in New Jersey. The government carried out widespread vaccination and the vaccine killed more people than the disease. Shutting down businesses and schools has significant educational and economic disadvantages. So common sense needs to prevail. 100 reported cases in the US does not warrant, in his opinion, canceling activities and closing schools.

- The best measure to take would be for people to stay home when they are sick. Physicians, he says, are often the greatest offenders here. Washing your hands either with soap and water or with a hand sanitizer (both work well to kill viruses) and doing so frequently, especially when you are in frequent contact with people, also is important.