From First Things:
ShareHer current rise reflects in many ways a right-wing shift in French politics. Once shunned as a racist proposition, the National Rally’s central campaign plank, ending mass immigration from the Global South, is now increasingly being accepted by French public opinion. According to a 2023 poll, 64 percent of the French want non-European immigration to be curtailed. Another poll shows, even more tellingly, that 51 percent of the left-wing, pro-immigration and pro-Islamic LFI party’s voters agree that there are too many non-European immigrants.
But more factors are also working in Marine Le Pen’s favor this time. One of her major achievements, since she succeeded her father Jean-Marie Le Pen as party leader in 2011, was to “dedemonize” the party and win over hitherto reluctant voters: Once smacking of Vichy State nostalgia, the National Rally turned into a neo-Gaullist and democratic organization.
Additionally, Macron will not be taking part in the 2027 election. A 2008 amendment limits French presidents to two consecutive five-year terms. Macron must therefore forego the election, though he may run again in 2032. This dynamic puts Le Pen at a distinct advantage against less prominent or less seasoned opponents, including Edouard Philippe, a former Macronist prime minister, who is polling at 21 percent.
But that’s only if Le Pen is allowed to run in 2027—and incredibly, she might not be. (Read more.)
No comments:
Post a Comment