Tea at Trianon: Red Storm Rising

John Wilson Croker on Marie-Antoinette

"We have followed the history of Marie Antoinette with the greatest diligence and scrupulosity. We have lived in those times. We have talked with some of her friends and some of her enemies; we have read, certainly not all, but hundreds of the libels written against her; and we have, in short, examined her life with– if we may be allowed to say so of ourselves– something of the accuracy of contemporaries, the diligence of inquirers, and the impartiality of historians, all combined; and we feel it our duty to declare, in as a solemn a manner as literature admits of, our well-matured opinion that every reproach against the morals of the queen was a gross calumny– that she was, as we have said, one of the purest of human beings."

~from History of the Guillotine by John Wilson Croker, 1844

Edmund Burke on Marie-Antoinette

"It is now sixteen or seventeen years since I saw the queen of France, then dauphiness, at Versailles; and surely there never lighted on this orb, which she hardly seemed to touch, a more delightful vision. I saw her just above the horizon, decorating and cheering the elevated sphere she had just begun to move in, glittering like a morning star full of life and splendor and joy. Oh, what a revolution....Little did I dream that I should have lived to see such disasters fall upon her, in a nation of gallant men, in a nation of men of honor and of cavaliers! I thought ten thousand swords must have leaped from their scabbards, to avenge even a look which threatened her with insult. But the age of chivalry is gone; that of sophisters, economists, and calculators has succeeded...."

~Edmund Burke, October 1790

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Red Storm Rising

From Amuse on X:

The calculus of war often hides behind the fog of peacetime wishful thinking. But when a regime faces the collapse of its internal order, the temptation to seek salvation through external aggression becomes not merely probable, but perilously rational. China’s present condition, as Kyle Bass argues, is precisely such a moment. A regime on the brink, with few options left but one: war. Specifically, a war to seize Taiwan.
At first glance, this might appear alarmist. After all, isn’t the People’s Republic of China deeply intertwined with global markets? Wouldn’t an invasion risk sanctions, conflict with the United States, and economic ruin? Possibly. But Bass and defense analyst Reuben F. Johnson compel us to ask the more urgent question: would not invading Taiwan present an even greater risk to the regime?
Consider the facts: China’s banking system is effectively insolvent, propped up by bad debt and political pressure. Its real estate sector—formerly the engine of growth—has imploded, leaving unfinished towers and bankrupt developers as symbols of economic hubris. Youth unemployment is not just high, but incalculable; so massaged are official statistics that they have simply stopped reporting it. Worse still, the yuan teeters on the edge of devaluation, held aloft only by unsustainable intervention. When the peg goes, capital flight will follow—and so will any remaining illusion of stability. (Read more.)