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Thursday, November 7, 2024

Trump Wins: What a Comeback

 From The Reactionary:

We were optimistic on Monday - if you looked at the crosstabs closely, Trump was making gains with independents, Black men, and Hispanics. He was making gains with 2020 Biden voters. There was widespread disapproval of Biden’s economic policies and Trump was trusted on the most two important issues this election: the economy and immigration. Momentum favored the Republicans. Nobody was enthusiastic for Kamala.

Contrary to the findings of the public pollsters - most of which had Kamala winning the election and the popular vote - the campaign’s internal polling was correct. (Credit to AtlasIntel and Rasmussen Reports and others who did a great job.) Those media reports about “terrible morale” inside the Trump campaign - like Trump’s “Hitler comments” and that last-minute Kamala +3% Iowa poll - were completely false. The Trump Team believed they would win. They were confident.

Kamala had a tough assignment. One that exceeded her abilities. How do you motivate voters without charisma? How to reassure voters with an economic plan when you wouldn’t do anything different than Biden? How do you convince voters that you’ll secure the border when you failed as “Border Czar”?

How do you win a Presidential election when you spectacularly failed as a candidate in 2020? You can’t. (A rhetorical question - how did those 20+ million Democrat votes from 2020 just vanish??)

Republicans finally traded the neocons for the working class. And it worked. Rural voters and Hispanic voters showed up for Trump. Rural counties shifted right across the country. Texas border counties, for example, are 90% Hispanic Democratic strongholds. Trump lost those counties by 10%+ in 2020. He won those counties last night. (Read more.)


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